---
type: "Evidence Item"
title: "Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics (May 2026): “Do Job Postings Show Early Labor-Market Effects of AI?”"
description: "Using Lightcast job postings data combined with Anthropic-derived AI exposure measures, NY Fed researchers report three findings: (1) the relative decline in vacancies for."
resource: "https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/do-job-postings-show-early-labor-market-effects-of-ai/"
tags: ["appendix-iii", "disconfirming", "federal-reserve-bank-of-new-york"]
timestamp: "2026-05-01"
category: "disconfirming"
publisher: "Federal Reserve Bank of New York"
cope_score: 22
confidence: 0.87
---

# Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics (May 2026): “Do Job Postings Show Early Labor-Market Effects of AI?”

# Claim

Using Lightcast job postings data combined with Anthropic-derived AI exposure measures, NY Fed researchers report three findings: (1) the relative decline in vacancies for AI-exposed occupations began before the release of ChatGPT in late 2022; (2) no divergence between junior and senior postings within highly exposed occupations; (3) fewer than 10% of workers and vacancies sit in occupations with high measured AI exposure. The authors conclude these patterns make it difficult to attribute the recent slowdown in entry-level hiring to AI alone.

# Relevance

Appendix III — audit register: attribution disconfirmation on junior/senior vacancy split

# Oracle Verdict

Finding (2) conflicts with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab payroll finding (~13% relative employment decline for ages 22–25 in the most AI-exposed occupations) on the specific signature this thesis predicts — the junior/senior split within exposed work. The two instruments measure different things: payroll records who was hired; postings record who firms say they want. The gap between them is itself informative if firms post junior roles they no longer fill, or inflate experience requirements on nominally entry-level postings (“experience creep”) — a reconciliation hypothesis that is checkable and currently unverified. Pending the pre-registered indicator readings, the register’s position is: the leading indicators disagree in a way consistent with the mechanism but not yet attributable to it. This entry is filed as disconfirming because a register that can only accumulate confirmation is a brief, not an audit.

# Metadata

* Publisher: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
* Category: disconfirming
* Sector: Labour economics
* Capability: AI labour-market attribution
* Cope score: 22
* Confidence: 0.87

# Related Concepts

* [Live evidence index](index.md)
* [Thesis](../thesis.md)

# Citations

[1] [Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics (May 2026): “Do Job Postings Show Early Labor-Market Effects of AI?”](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/do-job-postings-show-early-labor-market-effects-of-ai/)